July 19th, 2010 | Tags: , ,

On Monday 19 July, the Washington Post initiated a highly visible three-part story on the US intelligence community. It is a blistering piece on the train wreck we call “The Community.”

Here are the top lines from Monday’s article:

These are some of the findings of a two-year investigation by The Washington Post that discovered what amounts to an alternative geography of the United States, a Top Secret America hidden from public view and lacking in thorough oversight. After nine years of unprecedented spending and growth, the result is that the system put in place to keep the United States safe is so massive that its effectiveness is impossible to determine. Read more…

July 9th, 2010 | Tags:

This is a good contribution to the current debate about how best to create jobs and sustainable growth. The Kauffman Foundation is committed to entrepeneurialism and is a good resource center. Their Report provides an interesting read of the statistics, however, it is not proscriptive. Nor does it address the problem that most start-ups do not succeed; that is start-ups don’t produce long term jobs.

Thanks to the Foundation Center for bring the Report and Summary to my attention.

Although conventional wisdom suggests that the annual net job gain at existing companies is positive, the fact is that net job growth in the U.S. economy occurs only through start-up firms, a new report from the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation finds.

Based on the U.S. Census Bureau‘s business dynamics statistics, the report, The Importance of Startups in Job Creation and Job Destruction (12 pages, PDF), found that both on average and for all but seven years between 1977 and 2005, existing firms were net job destroyers, losing a combined one million jobs per year. In contrast, during their first year new firms added an average of three million jobs. The report also found that while job growth patterns at both start-ups and existing firms were pro-cyclical, there was much more variance in job growth patterns at existing firms. Indeed, during recessionary years job creation at start-ups remained relatively stable, while net job losses at existing firms were highly sensitive to the business cycle.

And it’s not just in net job creation that start-ups dominate. Although older firms lose more jobs than they create, the gross flows decline as firms age. On average, one-year-old firms create nearly one million jobs, while ten-year-old firms generate only 300,000. In other words, the notion that firms bulk up as they age is not supported by data.

Because start-ups that develop organically are the principal driver of job growth in the economy, job-creation policies aimed at luring larger, established employers inevitably will fail, said the report’s author, Tim Kane. Such city and state policies are doomed not only because they are zero-sum but because they are based on unrealistic employment growth models, added Kane.

“These findings imply that America should be thinking differently about the standard employment policy paradigm,” said Robert E. Litan, Kauffman Foundation vice president of research and policy. “Policy makers tend to focus on changes in the national or state unemployment rate, or on layoffs by existing companies. But the data from this report suggest that growth would be best boosted by supporting start-up firms.”

“Job Growth in U.S. Driven Entirely by Startups, According to Kauffman Foundation Study.” Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Press Release 7/07/10.

Primary Subject: Public Affairs
Location(s): National

FC015074

July 8th, 2010 | Tags: , ,
One goal of this blog is to present provocative ideas about the future. The following article was brought to my attention by the folks at the Arlington Institute. Let me know what you think about the article.

‘World could be plunged into crisis in 2014′:  Cambridge expert predicts ‘a great event’ will determine course of the century

By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 12:10 PM on 17th June 2010
A ‘Doomsday’ moment will take place in 2014 – and will determine whether the 21st century is full of violence and poverty or will be peaceful and prosperous, according to a Cambridge University professor. In the last 500 years there has been a cataclysmic ‘Great Event’ of international significance at the start of each century, he claims. Occurring in the middle of the second decade of each century, they include events which sparked wars, religious conflict and brought peace.
  Read more…

June 23rd, 2010 | Tags:

On 22 June the Pew Memorial Trust released survey results about how Americans see the future in 2050.  The report is a wide ranging survey. Interestingly, they compare the 2010 findings with results from a 1999 survey. There is no brief summary of the Report, but below is the first page of their presentation.

Public Sees a Future Full of Promise and Peril

Life in 2050: Amazing Science, Familiar Threats

Overview

Imagine a future in which cancer becomes a memory, ordinary people travel in space, and computers carry on conversations like humans. Now imagine a darker future – a world beset by war, rising temperatures and energy shortages, one where the United States faces a terrorist attack with nuclear weapons.  Read more…

June 15th, 2010 | Tags: , ,

Below is an excellent survey of the current academic questions about innovation and innovation policy. The current mantra is that we can innovate our way back to a growth economy. The article raises several of the challenges to this thesis. It is well worth the read!

INNOVATION

Re-Thinking Innovation

A New Agenda for Academic Investigation

 By W. Patrick McCray | Friday, May 14th, 2010

Before the revolutionary upheavals of the late 18th century, political leaders did not always look kindly upon innovation. It implied a break with tradition, the introduction of newness into political and religious affairs, and was thus often viewed with mistrust. Such times, of course, are long past. Today’s political leaders actively seek innovation—albeit a narrower form of newness in technologicalinnovation—as the basis for fostering jobs, prosperity, and economic growth. Read more…

June 2nd, 2010 | Tags:

Below is a media release summarizing a recent survey of employers about their attitudes and strategies for implementation of health care reform. I believe that the report should be cautiously read. I think it is to early to tell how employers will respond to health care reform as the laws are still being fleshed out at the regulatory level. Furthermore, I think employers are still confused by the rhetoric that was flying around during the debate.

I do support Towers Watson in that it is possible that employers will miss the opportunity to modernize the total compensation/reward system; a topic for discussion elsewhere.

Employers Brace for Health Care Reform-Related Cost Increases but Remain Committed to Subsidizing Employee Coverage

Retiree Medical Coverage Expected to Fall Sharply, According to Recent Towers Watson Survey

NEW YORK, May 25, 2010 — Although U.S. employers view controlling health care costs as their highest health care reform priority, few believe that the recently enacted Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) will stem the tide of rising costs, according to a May 2010 survey by Towers Watson (NYSE, NASDAQ: TW), a global professional services company. Despite these anticipated increases, nearly three-quarters of all large employers (74%) expect to continue to provide subsidized health care coverage for active employees.

When asked how important specific health care reform goals were to their organization, 96% of respondents pointed to the containment of health care costs as an essential or high priority, 88% said encouraging healthier lifestyles and 75% pointed to the improvement of quality of care. Despite these goals, nearly all employers (94%) believe that health care reform will raise their organization’s costs. Additionally, 61% believe reform will have a minimal effect on encouraging healthier lifestyles, and 73% believe it will have either a negative or no impact on the quality of care. Read more…

June 1st, 2010 | Tags:

Maplecroft, a risk assessment organization, puts out a number of interesting indexes. The natural disaster risk index is its most recent. The brief write up is concise and worth a moment of your time. The link to the actual map is at the end of the post.

BRICs and N11 countries top Maplecroft’s natural disaster risk ranking – France, Italy, USA at “high risk”

26/05/2010

Bangladesh, Indonesia and Iran have been rated as the nations most at risk from extreme weather and geophysical events according to a new study ranking 229 countries on their vulnerability to natural disasters. Read more…

Below is the executive summary of a new International Crisis Group Report on Lebanon. Lebanon in itself is of strategic importance. Additionally, the prime minister’s challenge of building consensus among rivals is one of the more dramatic such situations in the world today. ICC’s analysis provides insight as to how to build the consensus.

Lebanon’s Politics: The Sunni Community and Hariri’s Future Current

MENA Report Nº96 26 May 2010

 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The June 2009 swearing in as prime minister of Saad Hariri, leader of the Sunni Future Current movement, marks a turning point, the end of a period of exceptional domestic political turbulence and regional tensions that began with the 2005 murder of his father, Rafic; led to institutional paralysis; and culminated with the violent May 2008 showdown between government and opposition. It also presents the new leader with a host of novel challenges. The man who took the helm of a once deeply divided Sunni community must discard much of what enabled his rise, if he is to succeed now that he is in power. With Hizbollah, the principal Shiite movement, he must move away from the sectarianism that has become Lebanon’s political stock-and-trade. The Future Current should initiate the process of becoming a more genuine, institutionalised party, breaking from the clientelism that will otherwise inhibit the prime minister’s transition from community leader to statesman. And Hariri must continue to navigate the difficult normalisation with Syria, overcoming deep mistrust among his constituency toward Damascus. Read more…

May 20th, 2010 | Tags: , ,

The following essay is a tour de force reviewing the contested ideas of  US grand strategy. Though long (9800 words), I believe you will find the article rewarding in its breadth.

The article comes courtesy of the Foreign Policy Research Institute and the Temple University Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy. Contact information is at the end.
CAN THE UNITED STATES DO GRAND STRATEGY?
By Walter A. McDougall

Walter A. McDougall is Alloy-Ansin Professor of
International Relations at the University of Pennsylvania
and a Senior Fellow of FPRI, where he co-chairs the History
Institute for Teachers. This paper was delivered in October
2009 at the Consortium on Grand Strategy, a project
sponsored jointly by FPRI and Temple University’s Center for
the Study of Force and Diplomacy and chaired by Richard
Immerman and William Hitchcock. The Consortium was
established in 2009 as part of the Hertog Program on Grand
Strategy.

          CAN THE UNITED STATES DO GRAND STRATEGY?

                   By Walter A. McDougall

In spring 2003, following the last lecture in my survey
course on U.S. diplomatic history since 1776, a brilliant,
inquisitive student approached me in the hall to ask a
final, confidential question.  She said that my course
helped her appreciate, as never before, how swiftly the
United States had become the mightiest nation ever, with
unprecedented military, economic, and cultural influence.
But how long would it last?  How long did I think the United
States could stay on top? Read more…

May 18th, 2010 | Tags: , , , , ,

SAF believes that standards development for the Internet are of strategic importance. Today’s and tomorrow’s websites are becoming multi-dimensional, complexly layered, and highly interactive. Many organizations throughout the world depend on their websites for their existence.

Access to the web is quickly becoming ubiquitous. Standards are necessary so that people, programs, and smart devices can interact. When setting standards, there are winners and losers, so standard development and adoption is inherently political.  In general, the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) develops these standards in a consensus process among member companies.

Right now there is an open conflict over standards for the current and next generation websites. Adobe Flash, a software platform for animation, video, and websites is the de facto standard by its wide use. However, Flash is a proprietary product owned and sold by Adobe.  Read more…